Italian Export: who salt and who goes down in 2017?

Italian exports travel at high speed and have no intention of stopping. This is what emerged from the SACE export export report 2017 “Export unchained, where growth is waiting for Made in Italy”, which proved to be a great opportunity not only to analyze the ability to sell our businesses abroad Macro but also to better understand in detail what will be the countries where demand for Made in Italy will grow more.

First of all, it is to be said that for 2017 the forecasts speak of a significant growth of our exports – which after the 1.2% increase in 2016 – should increase substantially more in the current year (+3/4 %).

Over the next four years (2017-2020), the average growth of our overseas sales will be 4% and will also significantly increase the incidence of exports to GDP, and from 30.4% in 2016 to 32.4 % By 2020, almost to account for one-third of the annual wealth produced in Belpaise.

Who buys Made in Italy?

United States: a key market for Italian exports that, despite Trump’s protectionist threats, should continue to give our SMIs a great satisfaction, growing at a rate of 5%. Washington’s performances will, however, be heavily influenced by the ability of the US President to actually put into practice what promised in the election campaign with particular reference to fiscal policy. An expansive fiscal policy, which involves significant corporate and personal tax cuts, would in fact have absolutely positive effects and far from negligible on our exports.

Major EU economies: even in 2017, none of the major European economies – Germany (+ 4%), France (+ 3.2%) and Spain (+ 6.8%) – will demand a decline in Made in Italy. However, the most surprising thing is that coming from London because even the start of negotiations on Brexit would not be able to reduce sales to the UK, which is expected to grow by 2.3%.

Eastern Europe: the growth of Italian exports to this area will be generalized with the Czech Republic and Hungary (+ 6%), which will play the lion’s share followed by Poland (+ 4.4%), Ukraine (+3.1 %), Bulgaria (+ 2.5%) and Romania (+ 2.1%). Still negative numbers for Russia (-3.1%) and Belarus (-2.5%) although – for both countries – it is expected to grow more than 2% from next year.

Mena (Middle East and North Africa): In this area, demand for Italian products continues to be heavily influenced by low oil prices, a phenomenon that corrodes the purchasing power of many of the countries in the area. Among these, good performance is expected from Iran (+ 11.1%), Morocco (+ 6.2%), Turkey (+ 3.8%), Egypt (+ 3.2%), Saudi Arabia (+2 , 1%) and Qatar (+ 1.5%). Libya (-6.1%), United Arab Emirates (-1%) and Algeria (-0.1%), respectively.

Asia-Pacific: this is where the Made in Italy are facing real fireworks. It is no coincidence that Asia is the most dynamic region in the world (+ 6.1%) where the growing purchasing power of local populations pushes demand for agri-food products and services. Numerical data leaves little room for interpretations if we consider that the worst-performing countries are Australia (+ 2.7%), Hong Kong (+ 3.2%) and Japan (+ 3.4%). At the top of the chart for the growth rate in the export of Italian exports, we find Myanmar (+ 9%), Sri Lanka (+ 8.7%), Bangladesh (7.1%) and Taiwan (+ 6.3%).

Latin America: After a 2016 to forget the South American area should be re-launched in 2017. Good Macri Argentina (+ 2.8%) that with its reforms is opening the country to foreign investment investments. The most virtuous economies, however, will be Mexico (+ 4.6%) and Chile (+ 4.4%) while Brazil is still down (-2.8%), giant crossed by heavy political and economic uncertainty Should only be abated by 2018.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The whole region does not enjoy good health (globally the 2017 GDP will be negative: -0.4%) and the future of the area will be heavily influenced by the ability of leading countries such as Angola, Nigeria and South Africa to return To grow at high rhythms. The opposite is reported by Senegal (+ 7.2%), Ghana (+ 5.9%) and Kenya (+ 5.7%), due to a more diversified economic structure and therefore less related to the market Prime, energy and mining.

Which countries to target?

In the concluding part, SACE’s report suggests Italian companies 15 destinations to be targeted over the next few years.
These include large markets (the United States, China, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa), smaller sizes (United Arab Emirates, Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia) and some surprises (Mexico, Vietnam, Qatar, Peru and Kenya).

Fonte: a cura di Exportiamo, di Marco Sabatini.

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