Export italiano: chi sale e chi scende nel 2017

Le esportazioni italiane viaggiano ad alta velocità e non hanno alcuna intenzione di fermarsi. Questo è quello che emerso dalla presentazione del report Export 2017 di SACE ”Export unchained, dove la crescita attende il Made in Italy“ che si è rivelata un’ottima occasione non solo per analizzare la capacità di vendere all’estero delle nostre imprese a livello macro ma anche per capire meglio nel dettaglio quali saranno i Paesi dove la domanda di Made in Italy crescerà di più.

Innanzitutto va detto che per il 2017 le previsioni parlano di una crescita significativa del nostro export – che dopo l’incremento dell’1,2% del 2016 – dovrebbe registrare un incremento ben più sostanzioso per l’anno in corso (+3/4%).

Nei prossimi quattro anni (2017-2020) la crescita media delle nostre vendite all’estero sarà del 4% e salirà in misura significativa anche l’incidenza dell’export sul PIL che dal 30,4% del 2016 dovrebbe passare al 32,4% entro il 2020, arrivando quasi a rappresentare un terzo della ricchezza annua prodotta nel Belpaese.

Chi compra Made in Italy?

Stati Uniti: un mercato fondamentale per l’export italiano che, nonostante le minacce protezionistiche di Trump, dovrebbe continuare a regalare soddisfazioni importanti alle nostre PMI, crescendo ad un ritmo pari al 5%. Le performance di Washington saranno tuttavia fortemente influenzate dalla capacità del Presidente USA di mettere effettivamente in pratica quanto promesso in campagna elettorale co particolare riferimento alla politica fiscale. Una politica fiscale espansiva, che preveda significativi tagli alle tasse di imprese e persone, porterebbe infatti effetti assolutamente positivi e tutt’altro che trascurabili sul nostro export.

Principali economie UE: anche nel 2017 in nessuna delle principali economie europee – Germania (+4%), Francia (+3,2%) e Spagna (+6,8%) – la richiesta di Made in Italy accennerà a diminuire. Tuttavia il dato più sorprendente è quello proveniente da Londra perché neanche l’avvio dei negoziati relativi alla Brexit dovrebbe riuscire a far diminuire le vendite verso il Regno Unito, previste in crescita del 2,3%.

Europa dell’Est: la crescita dell’export italiano in quest’area sarà generalizzata con Repubblica Ceca ed Ungheria (+6%) che giocheranno la parte del leone seguite da Polonia (+4,4%), Ucraina (+3,1%), Bulgaria (+2,5%) e Romania (+2,1%). Ancora numeri negativi per la Russia (-3,1%) e Bielorussia (-2,5%) anche se – per entrambi i Paesi – si prevede una crescita superiore al 2% a partire dal prossimo anno.

Mena (Medio Oriente e Nord Africa): in quest’area la richiesta di prodotti italiani continua ad essere fortemente influenzata dal basso prezzo del petrolio, fenomeno che corrode il potere d’acquisto di molti dei Paesi dell’area. Fra questi ci si aspetta una buona performance da Iran (+11,1%), Marocco (+6,2%), Turchia (+3,8%), Egitto (+3,2%), Arabia Saudita (+2,1%) e Qatar (+1,5%). Male invece Libia (-6,1%), Emirati Arabi Uniti (-1%) ed Algeria (-0,1%).

Asia-Pacifico: è questa l’area in cui per il Made in Italy si prospettano dei veri e propri fuochi d’artificio. Non a caso quella asiatica è la regione più dinamica a livello globale (+6,1%) in cui il crescente potere d’acquisto delle popolazioni locali spinge la domanda di prodotti agroalimentari e servizi. I dati numerici lasciano poco spazio alle interpretazioni se si considera che i Paesi che registrano gli andamenti “peggiori” sono Australia (+2,7%), Hong Kong (+3,2%) e Giappone (+3,4%). In cima alla classifica per tasso di crescita nell’acquisto di export italiano troviamo invece Myanmar (+9%), Sri Lanka (+8,7%), Bangladesh (7,1%) e Taiwan (+6,3%).

America Latina: dopo un 2016 da dimenticare l’area sudamericana dovrebbe rilanciarsi nel 2017. Bene l’Argentina di Macri (+2,8%) che con le sue riforme sta aprendo il Paese agli investimenti delle imprese straniere. Le economie più virtuose tuttavia saranno Messico (+4,6%) e Cile (+4,4%) mentre ancora un calo è previsto per il Brasile (-2,8%), gigante attraversato da una pesante incertezza politica ed economica che dovrebbe attenuarsi solo a partire dal 2018.

Africa subsahariana: l’intera regione non gode di ottima salute (nel complesso il PIL del 2017 sarà negativo: -0,4%) ed il futuro dell’area sarà fortemente condizionato dalla capacità di Paesi leader come Angola, Nigeria e Sudafrica di tornare a crescere a ritmi elevati. Controtendenza si segnalano Senegal (+7,2%), Ghana (+5,9%) e Kenya (+5,7%), in virtù di una struttura economica maggiormente diversificata e per questo meno legata all’andamento del mercato delle materie prime, energetiche e minerarie.

Su quali Paesi puntare?

Nella parte conclusiva il report di SACE suggerisce alle imprese italiane 15 destinazioni su cui puntare nei prossimi anni.
Fra queste appaiono mercati di grandi dimensioni (Stati Uniti, Cina, Russia, India, Brasile, Indonesia, Sudafrica), realtà di dimensioni più contenute (Emirati Arabi Uniti, Repubblica Ceca, Arabia Saudita) ed alcune sorprese (Messico, Vietnam, Qatar, Perù e Kenya).

 

Fonte: a cura di Exportiamo, di Marco Sabatini.

 

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